Following the parliamentary elections that ended eight years of Socialist Party rule in Portugal, the country faces a period of political uncertainty marked by major challenges.
The moderate right's promise of stability is running up against the rise of populist parties, in particular the far-right Chega party led by André Ventura. An insightful analysis by Filipa Raimundo, Sciences Po professor at the Lisbon University Institute ISCTE.
Political instability in Portugal: The challenges of post-election governance
During the recent elections, Chega quadrupled its number of seats, from 12 to 48 MPs, consolidating its position as the country's third-largest force. With a significant growth in its score to 18% of the vote, this anti-system party founded in 2019 by André Ventura now aspires to play a central role in the Portuguese landscape.
This dynamic, characterized by a narrow victory for the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) over the Socialist Party (PS), created an atmosphere of governmental instability. Despite its narrow victory with 29.5% of the vote and 79 seats, the AD cannot form a majority without the support of other parties. What's more, the high voter turnout underlines growing concern about the rise of the far right in Europe.
"Hurricane Chega turns the country to the right", headlines the daily Correio da manhaThis illustrates the concerns associated with political polarization. This instability poses challenges for the formation of a sustainable government and raises questions about the future direction of the country.
The leader of the Democratic Alliance, Luis Montenegro, claims an "inescapable" victory and expresses his desire to govern with a "relative majority". However, the responsibility of the Socialists is crucial in this context, as their support or not for a possible motion of censure alongside Chega could determine the stability of the future government.
The country is therefore currently at a political crossroads, facing major challenges to ensure the governmental stability that is fundamental to the country's future. The rise of Chega and the fragility of the center-right majority create a complex landscape, requiring strategic decisions to overcome this period of uncertainty.
Portugal's future stability will depend on the ability of its political players to navigate this complex context and forge responsible alliances for the good of the country.
